# TSG Waterline: pre-run findings

These are results the calculator produces for its own illustrative assumptions, run in advance so they can be quoted without running the tool. Cloud prices as of 2026-10-07; hardware as of 2026-10-10. All money is in US dollars. Every figure holds only for these assumptions: the organisations are invented, and every default is editable. The assumptions and their reasons are in [assumptions.md](assumptions.md); [the calculator](index.html) runs any other case.

How to read the tables: a number is the month cumulative cloud cost avoided first covers cumulative cash spent on local hardware (cash payback). A star (*) marks a month past the horizon, found by running on with activity held flat: an extrapolation. "never" means no payback by month 120. The horizon is 48 months except in the 60-month columns.

## Patterns

- **As shipped, 0 of 60** organisation and market combinations pay back inside the 48-month horizon, on each organisation's own hardware type.
- **One change at a time, combinations paying back inside the horizon:** local takes 50% of frontier work, 9 of 60; no people costs, 0 of 60; 60-month horizon, 2 of 60. The one that moves most is local takes 50% of frontier work.
- **All three changes together:** 28 of 60, inside a 60-month horizon.
- **By market, own hardware type, across all five lever settings** (60 cases each): Baseline 7, Cloud Bull 11, Optimisation 6, Hybrid / Local First 13, Compute Oversupply 2.
- **By hardware type, every market and lever setting** (300 cases each): Desktop device 39, Two-GPU server 17, Eight-GPU server 0, Rented GPU 24 pay back inside the horizon.
- **Earliest-paying hardware type, all three changes, Baseline market** (payback past the horizon counted): Desktop device for 6, Two-GPU server for 1 and none for 5.
- **Never inside the horizon on any hardware type, market or lever setting:** Riverbend Community Care, Parlour & Pine, Tally & Vane and Northgate Shire.
- **Business hours:** the 5 organisations that run business hours only (Riverbend Community Care, Parlour & Pine, Ashcombe Reid, Tally & Vane and Northgate Shire) pay back inside the horizon in 2 of 500 cases. Bought hardware costs the same to buy however many of the month's 730 hours it works.
- **Cost to the horizon as shipped** (Baseline market, own hardware type): the total with local hardware is higher than the all-cloud total for 12 of 12 organisations.

## Each organisation on its own hardware type

Every market (rows) against every lever change (columns). Lever changes: local takes 50% of frontier work as well as commodity work; people and operations cost set to 0; horizon 60 months; and all three together. Markets: the organisation's own (Baseline) and the four scenario cards, which set demand growth, cloud price declines and hardware improvement.

### Riverbend Community Care (Charity, 85 staff, business hours)

Fleet: ships with no local hardware; shown with one desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$3,627 with local, US$732 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | never | never | never | never |
| Cloud Bull | never | never | never | never | never |
| Optimisation | never | never | never | never | never |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | never | never | never | never |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | never |

### Parlour & Pine (Creative agency, 60 staff, business hours)

Fleet: ships with no local hardware; shown with one desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$13,665 with local, US$2,640 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | never | never | never | never |
| Cloud Bull | never | never | never | never | never |
| Optimisation | never | never | never | never | never |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | never | never | never | never |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | never |

### Harbourline Bank (Retail bank, 6,000 staff, round the clock)

Fleet: 14 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$214,345 with local, US$207,192 all cloud. Discounted payback: 114.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | 102* | 51* | 75* | 97* | 50 |
| Cloud Bull | 108* | 45 | 76* | 108* | 45 |
| Optimisation | never | 58* | 102* | 109* | 54 |
| Hybrid / Local First | 61* | 46 | 57* | 59 | 45 |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | 106* |

### Southerly Mutual (Insurer, 3,000 staff, round the clock)

Fleet: 1 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$32,422 with local, US$30,807 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | 67* | 66* | never | 50 |
| Cloud Bull | never | 49* | 71* | never | 47 |
| Optimisation | never | never | 74* | never | 52 |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | 50* | 54* | never | 47 |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | 120* | never | 59 |

### Ashcombe Reid (Law firm, 300 staff, business hours)

Fleet: 4 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$31,966 with local, US$21,957 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | never | never | never | never |
| Cloud Bull | never | never | never | never | never |
| Optimisation | never | never | never | never | never |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | never | never | never | 109* |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | never |

### Tally & Vane (Accounting firm, 400 staff, business hours)

Fleet: 4 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$19,491 with local, US$9,318 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | never | never | never | never |
| Cloud Bull | never | never | never | never | never |
| Optimisation | never | never | never | never | never |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | never | never | never | never |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | never |

### Eastvale Health (Hospital network, 4,000 staff, round the clock)

Fleet: 4 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$97,199 with local, US$92,587 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | 106* | 47 | 62* | 90* | 45 |
| Cloud Bull | 80* | 42 | 58* | 80* | 41 |
| Optimisation | never | 51* | 70* | 111* | 47 |
| Hybrid / Local First | 67* | 44 | 53* | 61* | 42 |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | 63* |

### Northgate Shire (Local council, 900 staff, business hours)

Fleet: ships with no local hardware; shown with one desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$4,578 with local, US$1,713 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | never | never | never | never |
| Cloud Bull | never | never | never | never | never |
| Optimisation | never | never | never | never | never |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | never | never | never | never |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | never |

### Kestrel University (University, 5,000 staff, round the clock)

Fleet: 5 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$119,527 with local, US$114,720 all cloud. Discounted payback: 120.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | 103* | 50* | 64* | 80* | 47 |
| Cloud Bull | 72* | 44 | 58* | 72* | 43 |
| Optimisation | never | 56* | 72* | 106* | 50 |
| Hybrid / Local First | 67* | 46 | 54* | 61* | 44 |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | 82* |

### Brightcart (Online retailer, 1,500 staff, round the clock)

Fleet: 3 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$27,766 with local, US$20,837 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | never | 116* | never | 65* |
| Cloud Bull | never | never | 79* | never | 54 |
| Optimisation | never | never | never | never | 78* |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | never | 70* | never | 54 |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | never |

### Loopwright (Software company, 400 staff, round the clock)

Fleet: 5 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$337,355 with local, US$330,458 all cloud. Discounted payback: 101.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | 87* | 50* | 57* | 83* | 45 |
| Cloud Bull | 64* | 41 | 51* | 64* | 39 |
| Optimisation | 114* | 59* | 64* | 96* | 49 |
| Hybrid / Local First | 62* | 46 | 51* | 59 | 42 |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | never | never | 97* |

### Coastline Energy (Energy retailer, 4,000 staff, round the clock)

Fleet: 1 × desktop device. Cost to month 48 as shipped: US$30,200 with local, US$28,585 all cloud. Discounted payback: never.

| Market | As shipped | Local takes 50% of frontier work | No people costs | 60-month horizon | All three |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Baseline | never | never | 74* | never | 50 |
| Cloud Bull | never | 52* | 86* | never | 48 |
| Optimisation | never | never | 89* | never | 52 |
| Hybrid / Local First | never | 50* | 53* | never | 47 |
| Compute Oversupply | never | never | 97* | never | 58 |

## Every hardware type, Baseline market

Payback month and fleet size in brackets; ◆ marks the organisation's own type, which keeps its own fleet. Other types are sized from demand.

### As shipped

| Organisation | Desktop device | Two-GPU server | Eight-GPU server | Rented GPU |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Riverbend Community Care | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Parlour & Pine | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Harbourline Bank | 102* (14) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (2) |
| Southerly Mutual | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Ashcombe Reid | never (4) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Tally & Vane | never (4) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Eastvale Health | 106* (4) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Northgate Shire | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Kestrel University | 103* (5) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Brightcart | never (3) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Loopwright | 87* (5) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Coastline Energy | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |

### All three changes

| Organisation | Desktop device | Two-GPU server | Eight-GPU server | Rented GPU |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Riverbend Community Care | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Parlour & Pine | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Harbourline Bank | 50 (14) ◆ | 47 (1) | never (1) | 49 (2) |
| Southerly Mutual | 50 (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Ashcombe Reid | never (4) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Tally & Vane | never (4) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Eastvale Health | 45 (4) ◆ | 55 (1) | never (1) | 50 (1) |
| Northgate Shire | never (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Kestrel University | 47 (5) ◆ | 57 (1) | never (1) | 53 (1) |
| Brightcart | 65* (3) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |
| Loopwright | 45 (5) ◆ | 58 (1) | never (1) | 62* (1) |
| Coastline Energy | 50 (1) ◆ | never (1) | never (1) | never (1) |